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By United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment

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49 Implications and Aftermath of SALT I....... . . . . . . . . . . 50 The Current Ballistic Missile Defense Debate. . . , ....... . . . . 55 Strategic Nuclear Forces: The ICBM Vulnerability Issue . . . . . . . 55 Technological Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Soviet BMD Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , ........ 59 Political Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Insufficient information is now available to resolve the survivability question. The Soviet Union will have about as long to develop offensive countermeasures to defensive systems as the United States does to develop the defensive systems, and vice-versa. No one can confidently predict today whether defensive technologies will dominate offensive delivery technologies in the future. S. BMD research program should devote considerable effort to exploring BMD countermeasures, both to determine whether defense at the desired level of effectiveness is feasible and affordable, and to hedge against Soviet BMD advances.

Size preventing Soviet ballistic missiles from reaching their targets at all. The President called upon . . the scientific community in our country, those who gave us nuclear weapons, to turn their great talents now to the cause of mankind and world peace: to give us the means of rendering these nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete. z He did add a caution to his proposal: . . defense systems have limitations and raise certain problems and ambiguities. If paired with offense systems, they can be viewed as fostering an aggressive policy, and no one wants that.

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Ballistic missile defense technologies by United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment

by Christopher

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