By Richard A. Proctor
Probability and good fortune: The legislation of success, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling
The fake rules established between all periods of the neighborhood, cultured in addition to uncultured, respecting likelihood and success, illustrate the fact that universal consent (in issues outdoors the effect of authority) argues virtually of necessity errors. This, incidentally, may be proved via the tactic of percentages. For if, in any query of trouble, the opportunity that a standard brain will omit the right kind opinion is yet one-half-and this is often a lot underrating the opportunity of error-the likelihood that the bigger percentage of a neighborhood numbering many hundreds of thousands will pass judgement on rightly on this sort of query is yet as one in lots of thousands of thousands of hundreds of thousands. (Those who're too able to attract the argument from universal consent, and at the power of it occasionally to denounce or perhaps afflict their fellow males, may still take this fact-for it's truth, no longer opinion-very thoughtfully to heart.)
I can't desire, then, due to the fact that authority hasn't ever been on the pains to pronounce certainly on such questions respecting good fortune and likelihood as are handled the following, that universal opinion, that is proclaimed regularly and loudly in prefer of religion in success, will with no trouble settle for the lessons i've got complex, notwithstanding they be however the common-place of technological know-how in regard to the dependence of what's in most cases referred to as success, strictly, and ultimately, uniformly, on legislations. The playing fraternity will proceed to proclaim their trust in success (though those that have proved profitable between them have certainly not depended on to it), and the neighborhood on whom they prey will, for the main half, proceed to undergo the method of plucking, in complete trust that they're on their technique to fortune.
If a couple of will likely be taught, by means of what i've got defined the following, to work out that during the longer term even reasonable wagering and playing needs to bring about loss, whereas playing and wagering scarcely ever are reasonable, within the feel of being on even phrases, this ebook can have served an invaluable goal. I want i'll desire that it can serve the better objective of revealing that every one types of playing and hypothesis are primarily immoral, and that, although many that gamble should not consciously wrong-doers, their very unconsciousness of evil shows an uncultured, semi-savage mind.
Richard A. Proctor.
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Extra info for Chance and Luck: The Laws of Luck, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling
Whichever compartment wins, the players in that compartment save their stakes, but receive nothing from the bank; the players who have put their stakes in the other compartment lose them. , either the stakes in the red or those in the black compartment, and the only point to be settled is whether the larger or the smaller of these probably unequal sums shall pass to the bank’s exchequer. If the apr´es gives a second refait, the stakes still remain impounded, and another game is played, and no stakes are released until either rouge or noir has won.
Yet not only is each statement true, but it is of first-rate importance in the study of our subject that the truth of each should be clearly recognised. That the first statement is true, will perhaps not be questioned. The reasoning on which it is based would be too abstruse for these pages; but it has been experimentally verified over and over again. Thus, if a coin be tossed many thousands of times, and the numbers of resulting ‘heads’ and ‘tails’ be noted, it is found, not necessarily that these numbers differ from each other by a very small quantity, but that their difference is small compared with either.
In his pocket. But lotteries are not conducted in this simple way, or so that the swindle becomes obvious to all engaged. As a matter of fact, all lotteries are so arranged that the manager or managers of the lottery put a portion of the proceeds (or pool) into their pockets. Otherwise it would not be worth while to start a lottery. Whether a lottery is started by a nation, or for a cause, or for personal profit, it always is intended for profit; and profit is always secured, and indeed can only be secured, by making the total value of the prizes fall short of the sum received for the tickets.
Chance and Luck: The Laws of Luck, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling by Richard A. Proctor