By G.P. Beaumont

ISBN-10: 1904275192

ISBN-13: 9781904275190

This undergraduate textual content distils the knowledge of an skilled instructor and yields, to the mutual good thing about scholars and their teachers, a legitimate and stimulating creation to likelihood concept. The accessory is on its crucial position in statistical idea and perform, equipped at the use of illustrative examples and the answer of difficulties from common exam papers. Mathematically-friendly for first and moment 12 months undergraduate scholars, the e-book can be a reference resource for staff in quite a lot of disciplines who're acutely aware that even the easier elements of likelihood thought aren't easy.

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**Sample text**

I l ^ j ) . Now and/? 2)= 1 - P r ( / ? , | / ? 2 ) = 1- ~ = ^ - Neither P r ( / ? i | / ? 2 ) nor P r ( / ? 2 l ^ i ) can be found without knowing the composition of the balls at the start. Lacking this information, other, perhaps unwarranted, assumptions must be made. Our next example brings this out. Example 5 A bag contains two balls, each of which may be either red or white. A ball is drawn at random and found to be red. What is the probability that the other ball is red? To start with, the bag could contain 0, 1 or 2 red balls.

Since the total number of patients is 50, 3 0 - M C n ^ ) + 3 6 < 5 0 , or N(Cr)A)>\6. Problem 3. For the men, 80 = Ν(Μ') + N(Af) = N(M' η C') + N(M' η Ο + N{M) = 26 + Ν{Μ' Π Q + 44. Hence Ν{Μ' Π Q = 80 — 70 = 10, and the required number of women is 25 — 10 = 15. The total number of women is here redundant information. Problem 4. x{E η G ) - Pr(£ Π F Π G ) . For the last line, consult Problem 1, part (1). Problem 5. 1. = 720. = 96. Problem 6. 3" + 1 = 82. Problem 7. rt, + 1 of colour /• (including none).

3 Conditional Probability and Independence 62 other assumptions one might make, a plausible one being that each ball has equal probability of being white or red. This means that WW, RW, WR, RR are to have equal probability. T(R) = 0 X - 1 + 4 1 - X 2 - + 1 2 X 1 = 4 1 2 1 Pr(//o\R) = 0 , Pr(//, \R)= - , 1 P r ( / / j \ R ) = \ - ? τ { Η , \R)= - . When so appHed, ( 3 . 4 ) is known as Bayes' formula Example 6 We now return to Example 4 , and take it one stage further. That is, after first draw has been completed, a second ball is drawn at random, if white replaced together with another white, if red it is replaced together with more reds.

### Probability and Random Variables by G.P. Beaumont

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