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Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life PDF

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Environment, and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Climate Research Committee, Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations

ISBN-10: 0309068916

ISBN-13: 9780309068918

Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations, weather learn Committee, setting, and assets fee on Geosciences, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and weather, department in the world and lifestyles stories, nationwide examine Council

An total raise in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is anticipated to happen in line with human-induced raises in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping ''greenhouse gases." the main favourite of those gases, carbon dioxide, has elevated in focus through over 30% up to now two hundred years, and is predicted to proceed to extend good into the longer term. different adjustments in atmospheric composition complicate the image. particularly, raises within the variety of small debris (called aerosols) within the surroundings domestically offset and masks the greenhouse impact, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the higher troposphere and stratosphere.

Many within the clinical neighborhood think precise greenhouse-warming signature is obvious in floor temperature information for the previous few a long time. a few, despite the fact that, are questioned by means of the truth that satellite tv for pc temperature measurements point out little, if any, warming of the decrease to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the outside as much as approximately eight km) on account that such satellite tv for pc observations first turned operational in 1979. The satellite tv for pc measurements seem to be substantiated through self reliant pattern estimates for this era in accordance with radiosonde information. a few have interpreted this obvious discrepancy among floor and top air observations as casting doubt at the total reliability of the skin temperature list, while others have concluded that the satellite tv for pc facts (or the algorithms which are getting used to transform them into temperatures) needs to be faulty. it's also possible that temperatures on the earth's floor and aloft haven't tracked one another completely simply because they've got replied another way to common and/or human-induced weather forcing in this specific 20-year interval. no matter if those differing temperature traits should be reconciled has implications for assessing:

  • how a lot the earth has warmed prior to now few decades,
  • whether saw alterations are in accord with the expected reaction to the accumulation of greenhouse gases within the surroundings in response to version simulations, and
  • whether the present atmospheric gazing approach is enough for the needs of tracking global-mean temperature.

This document reassesses the obvious transformations among the temperature alterations recorded through satellites and the skin thermometer community at the foundation of the newest to be had info. It additionally deals an educated opinion as to how the various temperature documents could be interpreted, and recommends activities designed to lessen the rest uncertainties in those measurements.

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Additional info for Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change

Sample text

Pinatubo and in the amplitude of temperature variations induced by fluctuating solar irradiance. The longer the period over which trends are computed, the more these naturally occurring fluctuations in the temperature time series tend to average out. For example, the influence of these phenomena upon the trends should be much smaller when the trends are estimated for a 20-year long record compared with a 5-year record. However, model simulations suggest that such natural variability can still amount to an appreciable fraction of the observed disparity between the global-mean temperature trends at the earth's surface and in the lower to mid-troposphere.

Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. FINDINGS 23 panel cautions that trends in such short periods of record with arbitrary start and end points are not necessarily representative of how the atmosphere is changing in response to long-term humaninduced changes in atmospheric composition. Given reliable measurements, as outlined in Recommendation #1, the level of confidence that can be attached to the trends will increase as the period of record of upper air measurements lengthens.

1992) analyzed sources of errors for in situ SSTs. 4 °C outside the tropics. The standard error is larger in the North Pacific than in the North Atlantic and it is much larger in regions of strong SST gradient, such as in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, because both within-month temporal variability and the within-2° box spatial variability are enhanced. The total standard error of the monthly mean in each box decreases proportionately to the square root of the number of observations available.

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Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Environment, and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Climate Research Committee, Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations


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